After the stress of episode 11, I know what we're all thinking. Will this happen again? Could it get worse? Why Mark, why? Here's a quick look into what the future could hold... Before we begin, it's important to note a couple of things. These statistics are simply for fun, and most likely inaccurate to what will actually happen. They rely heavily on many things, including extreme extrapolation of data, low sample sizes, and making assumptions that levels and damage taken will follow a similar pattern in Aerois as they did in Lightfall. It also relies on Lucius staying alive untill the end of the campaign, which quite frankly is unlikely. Constitution saves: The first thing we look at is constitutions. Seeing as the injury checks are a constitution save, here is each characters constitution save modifier:
For reference, here is how Lucius and Aila's con saves look, up to level 15 (We're going up to level 15, because we're following as if campaign 1 matches campaign 2) DC of injury check: The DC of the injury check is 10, or half the damage taken. (We're assuming that a 10 is a success, not above a 10, because Mark is a kind and forgiving DM). For the DC to be above 10, 21 or more points of damage would have to be dealt. Average damage per attack will increase as levels increase, so the chance of an increased DC will increase with time. However, if we plot the average damage taken per episode in the lightfall campaign, our regression line never goes past 20. As this whole page is based on Aerois following the pattern of lightfall, we're therefore assuming that in 84 episodes, average damage will not be greater than 20, so we're calculating as if the save DC is 10. Chance of failing an injury check: The minimum straight dice rolls that must be rolled by the players to suceed the injury check go as follows:
The percentage chance of failing any given injury check is therefore:
Number of injury checks made: We're already 11 episodes in, so how many injury checks are likely to be made in the remaining 73 episodes. (Note, if they weren't ridiculous enough already, this is where things start getting a little insane and totally inaccurate.) The first thing that can force an injury check to be made is a character falling unconscious. We've looked at the number of KOds per character in the first 11 episodes, calculated an average, and looked at how many times each character would fall unconscious should the same pattern continue (which it almost certainly will not, so don't take this too seriously. Also we would dispute that characters would never fall unconscious across a whole campaign, but Elora managed it.) Average KOds per episode (11 total) so far: Quill = 0.364 Sentry = 0.091 Nova = 0 Lucius = 0.545 Aila = 0 Number of KOds should the pattern continue across the remaining 73 (out of 84) episodes so far: Quill: 27 Sentry: 7 Nova: 0 Lucius: 40 Aila: 0 The other thing that can force an injury check is a Nat 20 attack. In the Lightfall campaign there were 30 Nat 20 attacks made as an attack roll against players. That is on average 0.357 per episode, so 26 in our remaining 73 episodes. If we assume the number is split evenly, thats 5 more injury checks per character. That leaves our total number of injury checks like so: Quill: 32 Sentry: 12 Nova: 5 Lucius: 45 Aila: 5 Number of injury checks failed: Using the probabilities of failure multiplied by the predicted total injury checks, this is the number of the above injury checks that would fail: Quill: 13 Sentry: 4 Nova: 2 Aila and Lucius are a little different to calculate, because their percentage chance of failure is not constant. We calculated it like so, assuming that the injury checks are equally spread out across the 15 levels: (Lucius = 45/15 = 3 per level, Aila = 5/15 = 0.3 per level). Lucius: 4(0.3 * 3) + 4(0.25 * 3) + 4(0.2 * 3) + 3(0.15 *3) = 10.35 failures Aila: 4(0.25 * 0.3) + 4(0.2 *0. 3) + 4(0.15 * 0.3) + 3(0.1 *0.3) = 0.81 failures So the total failures per player look like: Quill: 13 Sentry: 4 Nova: 2 Lucius: 10 Aila: 1 Chance of a Nat 1: The thing we all fear- a Nat 1 on the injury table. Of the predicted injury check failures, what's the percentage that at least one of them will be a Nat 1? Fortunately, this is also the percentage chance of a Nat 20 on the injury table- which is much, much better.
Quill: 65% Sentry: 20% Nova: 10% Lucius: 50% Aila: 5% And before we post this into the void and you all worry about Quill loosing more arms or more eyes, here's your final reminder that we cannot accurately predict anything this far, especially everything past the % chance of failure where we start modeling based off the lightfall campaign. And if any of our High Rollers are reading this- please live up to your name and roll high- let these be over estimations. From Episode 77 to Episode 78- An analysis Episode 77 saw the party fighting Gregor and his group of fire giants. The episode finished on a cliff-hanger, with two fire giants remaining. Gregor, still standing and fighting well, and one other fire giant who is on the verge of being knocked down. So, this other giant is not much of a threat, and once he’s on his own, Gregor should be fairly easy to take down. The real issue comes from the message Trell received at the end of the episode from Trixiana, saying “…Strong…Summoning Demons…Something ha-…Not sure how.” This suggests that the party's fight is not yet over, unless they can find a way to overcome whatever Trixiana is speaking of. How are the party doing as we enter episode 78? Damage taken so far:
Reynard- 102 points Elora- 55 points Jiutou- 52 points Cam- 52 points Trell- 40 points Points healed so far: Reynard- 70 Jiutou- 20 Cam- 8 Elora- 4 Trell- 0 Approximate current hp: (total hp values taken of Yogscast wiki) Reynard- 70 Elora- 53 Jiutou- 38 Trell- 33 Cam- 31 Reynard, of course, has taken the most damage, having fallen unconscious already. However, this may have provided him with an advantage, especially if there is more fighting to be had- as he now has the highest number of hit points. Elora has also taken a large amount of damage and not healed very much, but being the party’s tank, she is still doing better than the three squishies. Looking at Cam, Trell and Jiutou (the squishies) we’ll see that all three of them a currently on dangerously low hp. A fire giant could do enough damage to knock one of them out in just one hit. Abilities: Abilities wise, the party is looking very good. Elora has used a few more spells but has both wild shapes remaining, and Cam still has a number of high level spell slots. Spell slots are less of an issue for Trell, who as a warlock is a user of powerful cantrips, but nevertheless he still has spell slots remaining. Reynard is also doing fine ability wise, and he and Jiutou are just as powerful as time goes on (unless exhaustion starts to kick in). Bonus- Grunka: Grunka has taken approximately 63 points of damage and has been healed 0. We don’t know what her total hp is, but barbarians have a d12 hit dice, meaning her hp is 12 + (6 x level) + (con x level), so depending on her level, probably fairly high. She is at a greater risk of taking damage by being a melee fighter, and from the opportunity attacks she takes from running to save Reynard. So, worth worrying about, but maybe not as much as the npcs that the group rolled percentile dice for before they went to fight (because if that was for percentage survival, the range in rolls is great enough to assume at least one has died. If it was for something other than that it is almost certainly still negative for someone who failed the roll). How many things have our High Rollers killed- whether it be to save a village, or simply just manslaughter, they’ve certainly made their mark on many lives.
It’s no surprise that Jiutou has the most kills. Jiutou has a scarily high amount of kills averaging out at 1.11 creatures slaughtered per episode. She has killed a total of 68 kills. Reynard is in second place when it comes to kill rate- also pretty terrifying at 0.92 kills per combat episode. Elora also has a fairly high number of kills- with a total of 54 kills. At the other end of the spectrum Trell has the lowest average kills per episode, with only 0.62 per episode. Cam is also fairly low with 0.70 per combat episode. Interestingly, these two have fallen unconcious over double the amount of times as anybody else, and Trell has almost half the kill rate as Jiutou. Although we have given statistics regarding the total numbers of critical rolls, this doesn’t allow for direct comparrison between characters, due to the different number of dice rolls each player makes. We calculated, of the total crits rolled by each player, how many were critical successes, and how many were failures.
The winner when it comes to Nat 20s is Mark, of his 1s and 20s 61% were 20s. The luckiest character is Reynard, with 58% Nat 20s. Congratulations Reynard. The lowest high roller is Trell, with 54% Nat 20s, closely followed by Cam with 55%. Elora is higher in the ranking than you’d expect, with 57% Nat 20s. Natural 1s. We all know them, we all hate them (unless they’re rolled by the DM of course). Here we have a look at how our high rollers have faired.
Once again, the record for total number of Nat 1s goes to Mark, with a grand total of 65, and an average of 0.87 per episode. Again, we will focus on the player stats more, due to the higher amount of rolls that a DM makes. That makes the record holder Cam, with a grand total of 48 Nat 1s. Reynard has the greatest per episode with 0.78. On the other end of the spectrum, Elora has the lowest with only 0.57 per episode. There are currently five episodes tying at first place for Nat 1s rolled- episodes 14, 18, 37, 40 and 56, each with 9 Nat ones apiece. Episode 55, the top scoring for Nat 20s had only 5 nat 20s rolled, meaning that during that episode for every Nat 1 rolled there was another 2.6 nat 20s. Episodes without Nat 1s include episode 1, 9, 16, 38, 52, 58, 72 and 75. Of course this list is not complete, because it is not always stated when a Nat 1 is rolled, and a player is much less likely to say when they have rolled a one rather than when they have rolled a 20- so when a player says “That’s not going to hit.” they could have rolled a one or another low number. We cannot make assumptions of the number of Nat 1s called like this, but we can assume that this increases the number of Nat 1s greater than the number of Nat 20s would be increased by the same effect. However, given that this same variation exists between all players, the data is still viable for comparrison, and the figures given are still accurate to what is said on screen. Welcome to the first post of High Rollers Stats. What better to document than the highest roll you can achieve- a Nat 20!
Currently the record for most Nat 20′s goes to Mark, with 101 across the whole series. Mark however, being the DM, had rolled a lot more dice, and has been present for every episode. So if we look at the characters, Cam currently holds the record for the most Nat 20s, with 58, closely followed by Jiutou (55) and Elora (54). Trell currently has the lowest, with only 32. Despite Tom only being present for 32 episodes so far, Reynard already has an impressive 35 Nat 20s. When taking into account the average number per episode, it is again Reynard who fares the best out of the players, with an average of 1.09. Elora is somewhat held back by Katie’s dice curse, her average being only 0.75 per episode, the lowest of the group. Katie has also been present for the greatest number of episodes (72), although this did not provide her the advantage as seen with Mark. Looking at episodes individually, the most Nat 20s rolled in one episode is 13, episode 55. There are two episodes so far with no Nat 20s rolled at all- Episodes 61 and 75- these being some of the most RP heavy. Of course, this list is not 100% accurate- not every Nat 20 rolled is called by the player or DM, and the average per episode can be skewed by the average a player rolls per episode, for example Reynard rolls to hit with his crossbow much more often than Elora would with mainly area effect spells. However, we are given a picture of the luck of the players, and a full list should you want to look back at any of these moments (personal favourite has got to be Cam’s special Nat 20). Dear all Artists,
We are always looking for new pieces of your amazing artwork to feature on the website. If you are interested in letting us use your art, please let us know. You can message us on Tumblr or Twitter, along with any art you would specifically like to be featured, and how you would like to be credited. Thank You, Mod Dura |
High Rollers Stats
We're dedicated to pulling together all the stats from the Twitch DnD show High Rollers Archives
April 2019
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